Wales should win with ease (From Western Telegraph)

Wales should win with ease

7:10am Saturday 20th March 2010 in

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WALES’ hopes of finishing a disappointing Six Nations on a high with a convincing victory over Italy at the Millennium Stadium today have been hit by a double intervention.

Wales have averaged five tries and 40 points a game against the Azzurri since they joined the tournament ten years ago, but a combination of wet weather and Italian coach Nick Mallett’s refusal to have the roof shut has minimised the chances.

Not of achieving a much-needed victory after three defeats and a narrow squeak, for surely Wales will still win with a bit to spare, but 40 points or more seems a far more difficult goal now.

Heavy rain yesterday, with more forecast for today, will put a dampener on that objective and Wales and coach Warren Gatland may now have to re-assess the way they go about gaining that victory.

Mallett is within his rights to refuse to have the roof shut, for the agreement of the opposition always has to be obtained, and if the gifted South African coach believes his adopted team have their best chance of winning in Cardiff by exposing the pitch and the players to the elements he’s going to do that.

For he must know the best chance of Italy really upsetting the apple cart and send the Welsh nation into mourning lies in engaging Wales in a forward battle - the very area where his team is at its strongest.

For despite the withdrawal of two forwards Carlo del Fava and Paul Derbyshire – threequarter Andrea Masi became a third to pull out yesterday – the Italian strength is in a powerful set of forwards.

The inclusion of Marco Bortolami for del Fava will hardly weaken them for they already have a formidable front row in the iconic figure of Martin Castrogiovanni, skipper Leonardo Ghiraldini and Salvatore Perugini and though they are without the inspirational figure of No 8 and ex-captain Sergio Parisse through injury Mauro Bergamasco and Alessandro Zanni are both talented back row forwards.

Argentinian-born scrum half Pablo Canavosio has scored two tries in this Six Nations after going on as a replacement, but he starts against Wales and is an obvious danger man.

He has started eight Tests on the wing, fairly typical of this Italian side, winger and former centre Mirco Bergamasco, brother of Mauro, taking over the kicking role this season, for example, and making a success of it – any points today will be his first against Wales in his ninth Test against them.

But the Azzurri possess little real menace behind, which always has been their Achilles’ heel, so they will have to depend on their pack, which is where the rain and Mallett come in.

Despite their obvious threat up front, Wales ought to be able to cope especially with the return from injury of Lions trio Gethin Jenkins, skipper Ryan Jones and scrum half Mike Phillips, often seen as a ninth forward with his power game.

Jenkins, who wins his 74th cap, and Phillips, who earns his 39th, have been particularly badly missed even though replacements Paul James and Richie Rees have performed nobly in their absence.

But it is the line-out where Wales need to make the biggest improvement, for they have lost possession on their own throw with depressing regularity in every Six Nations game, and the Italian line-out is not exactly impoverished.

But no longer can line-outs be lost and neither can there be a continuation of the ill-discipline which has dogged Wales, not to mention a series of turnovers.

If they establish parity up front, and that is the minimum requirement of course, then they certainly have the backs to cause problems, though a wet ball will hamper their handling ability and could mar the debut of Tom Prydie.

The winger becomes the youngest player ever to appear for Wales at 18 years and 27 days, and his debut will be eagerly awaited after all the hype surrounding his shock call-up by Gatland.

He is said to be the fastest player in the squad despite his tender years and blessed with a maturity beyond his years and along with Shane Williams could be a matchwinner today.

Outside half Stephen Jones will have to release his backs for that to happen or he could go the same way as Martyn Williams, who looks increasingly like he is starting to be put out to grass by Gatland.

Dan Biggar will challenge him and James Hook shouldn’t be ruled out either, for he has looked anything but an outside centre where Gatland has been playing him while Jason Tovey remains one to watch.

Weather or no weather, Wales will surely get the victory they need today, but if it is by somewhere in the region of 15 to 20 points it won’t really satisfy with a two-Test visit to New Zealand to come in the summer. I have a feeling, though, that they will have to be content with that kind of margin.