Pembrokeshire is expected to buck the national milk production trend this autumn.

First Milk, Britains largest farmer-owned dairy business, is predicting that the foot and mouth disease outbreak will lead to a milk production crisis this winter.

The UK has lost five per cent of milk volume, but this figure has been offset by the suspension of the over 30 months scheme (OTMS).

This scheme has yet to re-open at abattoirs in West Wales and, while Pembrokeshire remains foot and mouth disease free, dairy farmers are expected to produce milk at pre-quota levels.

The national shortfall could trigger a price increase and, because there is no prospect of the country achieving its national quota, this milk can be produced without quota leasing and purchasing costs.

Stephen James, southern area director of First Milk, predicts a significant rise in output.

Pembrokeshire farmers will be producing more milk than ever without the worry of staying within quota," says Mr James, of Gelli Olau, Bethesda, Narberth.

This is good news, not only for these milk producers but for the allied industries in Pembrokeshire. There are good opportunities at the moment but it may only last for up to two years."

This will only remain so if Pembrokeshire can maintain its foot and mouth disease free status.

It is important that we maintain our vigil against this disease,"said Mr James.

I think there is general relief, in light of the outbreak in the Brecon Beacons, that the agricultural shows in Pembrokeshire have all been cancelled."

First Milk will know by the end of next month the full extent of the national shortfall.

Its chairman, John Duncan, says the company is extending its survey of producers.

We are extending our work to a far larger sample of farms this month to establish the full extent of the forthcoming problem," he says.

While the OTMS has re-opened in England, it has yet to restart in Wales. In England it is estimated to be handling less than 9,000 animals a week compared with normal demand of around 13,000 cows.